Senior Expert

Organizational context: The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the UN system's designated entity for environmental issues. This role supports Tanzania's Vice-President's Office – Division of Environment (VPO-DoE) in developing its first Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). The project aims to raise climate ambition and align short-term NDC commitments with long-term strategies, funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and the Partnership Action Fund (PAF).

Job purpose: This role is to lead the quantitative modelling and scenario analysis for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). The purpose is to develop a comprehensive set of calibrated, documented, and nationally owned low-emission scenarios. These scenarios will form the quantitative backbone of the LT-LEDS, supporting Tanzania's transition towards a climate-resilient, net-zero, and nature-positive economy by 2050. The work involves close collaboration with national institutions and consultants to ensure modelling outputs directly inform the strategy, integrating net-zero, nature-positive, resilience, and investment-planning objectives. The expert will ensure the modelling translates into actionable pathways, quantifies investment needs, and enhances the LT-LEDS as a development and investment framework.

Responsibilities:
Develop a GHG baseline and Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario to 2050, consistent with IPCC guidelines. Create sector-specific net-zero-by-2050 pathways for energy, transport, AFOLU, industry, waste, blue economy, and human settlements. Quantify mitigation and adaptation potentials, with a focus on nature-positive options and AFOLU carbon sequestration. Assess cost-benefit, macro-economic impacts, and just-transition implications of mitigation pathways. Analyze opportunities and implications of Article 6 cooperative approaches and carbon market mechanisms. Map relevant international cooperation and climate finance initiatives. Document data sources, assumptions, limitations, and uncertainties, maintaining a risk register. Validate modelling outputs through stakeholder workshops. Design and deliver capacity-building activities on modelling tools for national institutions. Produce publication-quality technical reports and modelling annexes for the LT-LEDS.

Education:
Advanced university degree (Master's or equivalent) in climate change, energy/environmental engineering, environmental economics, energy systems, or integrated assessment modelling. A PhD is advantageous. Fluency in English is required, with the ability to produce high-quality technical reports.

Work

experience:
Minimum 12 years of professional experience in climate change mitigation modelling, long-term low-emission strategy development, or NDC/LT-LEDS preparation, with at least 8 years in integrated, energy-system, or sectoral GHG modelling. Demonstrated hands-on experience with modelling platforms (e.g., LEAP, TIMES, GCAM, MESSAGE, OSeMOSYS). Familiarity with land-use, AFOLU emissions, nature-related, and macro-economic modelling approaches. Experience applying Robust Decision Making (RDM) is a strong asset. Proven track record in producing GHG baselines/BAU scenarios and cost-benefit/macro-economic assessments. Prior involvement in national LT-LEDS or comparable strategies is required. Substantive experience in Sub-Saharan Africa is required; Tanzania or EAC experience is a strong asset. Experience in capacity building on modelling tools is required.

Skills:
Climate Change Mitigation Modelling, Long-Term Low Emission Strategy Development, GHG Baseline and BAU Scenario Development, Sectoral Pathway Analysis, Nature-Based Solutions Modelling, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Macro-economic Modelling, Just Transition Analysis, Article 6 Analysis, Integrated Assessment Modelling, LEAP, TIMES, GCAM, MESSAGE, OSeMOSYS, InVEST, CGE, System Dynamics, Robust Decision Making (RDM), IPCC Guidelines, Capacity Building, Technical Report Writing.

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Desired languages: